What really sets prices in 78746? If you ask three people, you may hear three different answers: not enough homes, tech layoffs, or rising mortgage rates. The truth is simpler and more useful. Prices move when supply, demand, financing, and timing line up. If you understand those four forces, you can make clearer decisions whether you are planning to buy or sell.
This guide breaks down each driver in plain English, with a focus on West Austin’s 78746. You will see how the west side differs from the broader metro, what numbers to watch, and how to act on them. Let’s dive in.
Four forces behind prices
Inventory and supply
Supply sets the stage for pricing. When there are more buyers than homes, prices push up. When listings stack up, buyers gain leverage. Two facts matter most: total active listings and months of supply. Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell everything at the current pace. Low months of supply usually supports stronger pricing.
In 78746, supply is often tighter than the Austin average. Hilly topography, larger lots, and established neighborhoods limit how many new homes can be added. There are fewer entry-level homes and fewer mass-market new builds. That limited pipeline tends to support a higher baseline for prices and often a faster recovery when the broader market slows.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: Limited supply can support pricing power, but your buyer pool is smaller at higher price points. Accurate pricing and standout marketing still matter.
- Buyers: Expect fewer options and more competition for well-presented homes. Be ready to move when the right fit appears.
Demand from jobs and migration
Demand grows when people move in, form households, and have stable jobs. Austin has seen sustained job growth and in‑migration over the past decade, driven by technology and corporate expansions. That rising demand lifts many neighborhoods.
In 78746 specifically, buyer interest is shaped by school assignment, larger lots, and lifestyle amenities such as access to Lake Austin and the hill country. The buyer pool often includes higher-income, owner‑occupant households that value proximity to major employment nodes and daily conveniences. When employers expand hiring, demand can rise; when hiring pauses, activity can slow.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: Track local employment headlines and showing activity. Strong job news often correlates with more qualified buyers.
- Buyers: If you are relocating, start early. Tight neighborhoods reward advance planning and flexible timing.
Financing and mortgage rates
Mortgage rates affect how much home a buyer can afford at a given monthly payment. When rates rise, fewer buyers qualify for a price point; when rates fall, more buyers enter the market. Rate swings can shift demand quickly.
In higher‑priced areas like 78746, many buyers use larger down payments, jumbo financing, or cash. That reduces sensitivity to rate changes, but it does not remove it. A sharp jump in rates can still shrink the pool of qualified buyers and lengthen time on market, especially for homes that need updates or have niche layouts.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: If rates rise and showings slow, be proactive on pricing and presentation. If rates fall, consider timing your launch to catch renewed demand.
- Buyers: Get fully underwritten pre‑approval and understand your options for jumbo loans or cash reserves. This strengthens your position in limited‑inventory segments.
Seasonality and timing
Real estate moves in rhythms. Across Austin, spring typically brings more listings and more buyers. Late fall and winter often slow down, with fewer new listings and longer days on market. That seasonal pattern helps you plan.
Luxury and premium segments can behave differently. In 78746, serious buyers often search year‑round, especially for view lots or unique properties. Still, spring usually offers the widest audience. Off‑peak seasons can favor well‑priced homes and buyers who want less competition.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: Spring offers broad exposure. High‑end homes can also do well off‑cycle if staged and marketed to the right audience.
- Buyers: Off‑season shopping can reveal motivated sellers and fewer competing offers.
Why 78746 differs
Supply constraints
West Austin’s terrain and established neighborhoods limit density. Larger lots, hillside considerations, and conservation areas reduce easy redevelopment. Zoning, deed restrictions, and neighborhood protections limit multifamily infill compared to denser parts of the metro. Inside 78746, there are fewer infill lots and fewer large new subdivisions. Most new construction serving price‑sensitive buyers happens on the metro’s periphery, not in the west side core.
Demand patterns
Buyer preferences often focus on school assignment, privacy, and access to amenities. Many households seeking 78746 prioritize quick commutes to employment hubs, proximity to downtown, or lifestyle features such as Lake Austin access and trail networks. The buyer base often includes move‑up families and long‑term owner‑occupants who value stability and lot features like views, mature trees, or outdoor living space.
Policy, taxes, and costs
Texas does not have a state income tax, so property taxes make up a larger share of annual carrying costs. Homestead and other exemptions can reduce those costs for qualifying buyers. It is smart to check current appraised values and taxing jurisdictions with the Travis County Appraisal District before you finalize budgets. Local infrastructure projects, school bonds, and amenity investments can support values in specific pockets. Construction or permitting constraints can slow new supply.
Environmental and HOAs
Certain parcels near creeks or steep slopes may fall under floodplain or hillside rules, which affect what and how you can build. Many west‑side neighborhoods include HOAs and private amenities that add to carrying costs and influence buyer preferences. If you are evaluating a property, review neighborhood rules and insurance needs early.
What to check now
Key metrics checklist
To read the market with confidence, review these numbers for 78746 and compare them to the broader county or metro:
- Active listings and new listings over the last 30 to 90 days
- Months of supply and the trend month over month
- Median days on market by month
- Median sale price and price per square foot trends over 12 to 24 months
- List‑to‑sale price ratio
- Share of cash sales and jumbo loans
- Percentage of sales that are new construction
- Typical lot sizes and age of housing stock by sub‑neighborhood
- Recent building permits for single‑family infill
Where to find them:
- Austin Board of Realtors/MLS for live inventory, pricing, and days on market
- Travis County Appraisal District for property records and tax jurisdictions
- City of Austin planning and permitting dashboards for permits and zoning
- Bureau of Labor Statistics and Texas Workforce Commission for local employment trends
- U.S. Census and IRS migration data for population and household flows
- Mortgage rate snapshots from national indexes for 30‑year fixed averages
How to interpret the numbers
Use simple if‑then cues to turn data into decisions:
- If months of supply is falling and days on market are shortening, then pricing power is improving for sellers.
- If months of supply is rising and list‑to‑sale ratios are slipping, then buyers may gain room to negotiate.
- If mortgage rates drop meaningfully, then buyer capacity can expand and demand can firm.
- If new permit activity is low and inventory is tight, then limited future supply may support prices.
Tips for buyers and sellers
If you are selling in 78746
- Price with precision. At higher price bands, small mispricings can stall momentum. Anchor your ask to the most recent, relevant sold comps in the same micro‑area.
- Lead with presentation. In 78746, homes often trade on lot quality, views, outdoor living, and school assignment as much as interior finishes. Invest in professional photography, aerials where appropriate, and crisp listing copy.
- Time strategically. Spring usually brings more eyeballs. Off‑peak can work for unique properties if your marketing is targeted.
- Prepare for scrutiny. Pre‑listing inspections, clear disclosures, and easy access to HOA and permitting information help keep serious buyers engaged.
If you are buying in 78746
- Get fully underwritten. Strong pre‑approval or cash reserves help you move quickly and negotiate confidently.
- Know your must‑haves. Decide where you can trade finishes for lot quality, school assignment, commute, or future renovation potential.
- Watch the micro‑trends. Compare your target pocket’s inventory and days on market to the broader ZIP. The right home can appear suddenly and sell quickly.
- Plan for due diligence. Review floodplain maps, neighborhood rules, and likely insurance and tax costs early in your search.
Work with a neighborhood‑first advisor
In a market shaped by tight supply, selective demand, and shifting rates, you want a partner who blends neighborhood relationships with disciplined pricing. Propertysmith Realty is a boutique, owner‑operated brokerage focused on West Austin. Our approach combines CPA‑level valuation, clear strategy, and white‑glove marketing that highlights what matters most in 78746: lot, lifestyle, and long‑term value. If you are considering a move, we would love to help you read the numbers and craft the right plan.
Ready to start? Request your personalized home valuation from Propertysmith Realty.
FAQs
Why are homes in 78746 more expensive than much of Austin?
- A mix of constrained supply (terrain, larger lots, zoning), steady demand tied to school assignment and amenities, and a buyer base with higher incomes supports premium pricing.
How much do mortgage rates affect prices in 78746?
- Rates affect affordability everywhere; in higher price bands the impact is reduced by cash buyers and larger down payments, but rate spikes can still shrink the qualified buyer pool and slow sales.
Is now a good time to sell on the west side of Austin?
- It depends on local inventory and your timing. Check months of supply and recent comparable sales; limited inventory usually helps sellers, but correct pricing remains essential.
Will new construction solve affordability in 78746?
- Not quickly. Physical constraints and zoning limit high‑density new supply inside the ZIP; most affordability gains come from higher‑density development on the metro’s edges or policy changes.
How should I evaluate a home’s value in 78746?
- Use recent sold comps from the same micro‑neighborhood, then adjust for lot features, views, school assignment, and condition. Local MLS data and a neighborhood‑specialist agent are key.
